Using Shapes of COVID-19 Positive Patient-Specific Trajectories for Mortality Prediction.

Machine learning can be used to identify relevant trajectory shape features for improved predictive risk modeling, which can help inform decisions for individualized patient management in intensive care during COVID-19 outbreaks. We present explainable random forests to dynamically predict next day mortality risk in COVID -19 positive and negative patients admitted to the Mount Sinai Health System between March 1st and June 8th, 2020 using patient time-series data of vitals, blood and other laboratory measurements from the previous 7 days. Three different models were assessed by using time series with: 1) most recent patient measurements, 2) summary statistics of trajectories (min/max/median/first/last/count), and 3) coefficients of fitted cubic splines to trajectories. AUROC and AUPRC with cross-validation were used to compare models. We found that the second and third models performed statistically significantly better than the first model. Model interpretations are provided at patient-specific level to inform resource allocation and patient care.

BEHRTDAY: Dynamic Mortality Risk Prediction using Time-Variant COVID-19 Patient Specific Trajectories.

Incorporating repeated measurements of vitals and laboratory measurements can improve mortality risk-prediction and identify key risk factors in individualized treatment of COVID-19 hospitalized patients. In this observational study, demographic and laboratory data of all admitted patients to 5 hospitals of Mount Sinai Health System, New York, with COVID-19 positive tests between March 1st and June 8th, 2020, were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between survivors and non-survivors. Next day mortality risk of patients was assessed using a transformer-based model BEHRTDAY fitted to patient time series data of vital signs, blood and other laboratory measurements given the entire patients' hospital stay. The study population includes 3699 COVID-19 positive (57% male, median age: 67) patients. This model had a very high average precision score (0.96) and area under receiver operator curve (0.92) for next-day mortality prediction given entire patients' trajectories, and through masking, it learnt each variable's context.

Using Shapes of COVID-19 Positive Patient-Specific Trajectories for Mortality Prediction

Machine learning can be used to identify relevant trajectory shape features for improved predictive risk modeling, which can help inform decisions for individualized patient management in intensive care during COVID-19 outbreaks. We present explainable random forests to dynamically predict next day mortality risk in COVID -19 positive and negative patients admitted to the Mount Sinai Health System between March 1st and June 8th, 2020 using patient time-series data of vitals, blood and other laboratory measurements from the previous 7 days. Three different models were assessed by using time series with: 1) most recent patient measurements, 2) summary statistics of trajectories (min/max/median/first/last/count), and 3) coefficients of fitted cubic splines to trajectories. AUROC and AUPRC with cross-validation were used to compare models. We found that the second and third models performed statistically significantly better than the first model. Model interpretations are provided at patient-specific level to inform resource allocation and patient care.

BEHRTDAY: Dynamic Mortality Risk Prediction using Time-Variant COVID-19 Patient Specific Trajectories

Incorporating repeated measurements of vitals and laboratory measurements can improve mortality risk-prediction and identify key risk factors in individualized treatment of COVID-19 hospitalized patients. In this observational study, demographic and laboratory data of all admitted patients to 5 hospitals of Mount Sinai Health System, New York, with COVID-19 positive tests between March 1st and June 8th, 2020, were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between survivors and non-survivors. Next day mortality risk of patients was assessed using a transformer-based model BEHRTDAY fitted to patient time series data of vital signs, blood and other laboratory measurements given the entire patients’ hospital stay. The study population includes 3699 COVID-19 positive (57% male, median age: 67) patients. This model had a very high average precision score (0.96) and area under receiver operator curve (0.92) for next-day mortality prediction given entire patients’ trajectories, and through masking, it learnt each variable’s context.

Myocardial Infarction in the Absence of Obstructive Coronary Artery Disease (MINOCA): a Review of the Present and Preview of the Future.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The syndrome of myocardial infarction in the absence of obstructive coronary artery disease (MINOCA) is not uncommon and has multiple potential coronary etiologies. With the use of more sensitive cardiac biomarkers and advanced cardiovascular imaging, MINOCA presentations have gain increasing attention among researchers and cardiologists. Despite the presence of a myocardial infarction and elevated future risk, many patients are sent home with little or no cardio-protective treatment and no explanation for their symptoms. In this review, we emphasized the importance of MINOCA treatment based on the underlying etiology. RECENT FINDINGS: As there are multiple pathophysiological mechanisms potentially involved in MINOCA, it should be considered a working diagnosis until there is a better understanding regarding the underlying cause. It is critical to use multimodality imaging when treating patients with MINOCA to help determine the underlying etiology and rule out mimics of MINOCA, so that therapies appropriate to the etiology can be provided. A more systematic approach to managing patients with MINOCA should result in better treatment and an improved prognosis for these patients.